DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC FACTORS OF FERTILITY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF KEMEROVO AND MOSCOW OBLASTS

Abstract

The objective of the study is to comparatively analyze the influence of demographic and economic factors on the birth rate in two regions of the Russian Federation with contrasting socio-economic development: Kemerovo and Moscow oblasts. The study utilized paired and multiple regression methods, Fisher's exact test, multicollinearity analysis, calculation of standardized regression coefficients (β-coefficients), and the authors' housing affordability indicator (the ratio of the price per square meter to the average wage). The empirical base consists of official statistical data for 2016–2024. For Kemerovo oblast, a statistically significant relationship was established between the number of births and the population size, the number of women of childbearing age, and the average age of first-time mothers. Among economic factors, the average wage has the greatest impact on the total fertility rate (TFR) (standardized β-coefficient = 2.62), with the relationship being inverse: an increase in income is accompanied by a decrease in the birth rate. For the Moscow Region, no statistically significant correlation was found between fertility and either demographic or economic factors. In regions with lower levels of economic stability (such as the Kemerovo Region), fertility is sensitive to material factors such as income and housing affordability. In prosperous regions (such as the Moscow Region), non-material factors predominate in decisions about having children. These results support the need for a differentiated demographic policy: for economically vulnerable regions, prioritizing material support, while for high-income regions, focusing on work-family balance, flexible employment, and social infrastructure.