INDUSTRY ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET DYNAMICS IN THE CONTEXT OF EXTERNAL RISKS AND HIGH INTEREST RATES

Abstract

The study examines the general behavior of prices for shares of issuers from various sectors of the Russian economy traded on the Moscow Exchange stock platform over three years — from the start of a significant decline in the stock market in the third ten-day period of February 2022 to early April 2025. The degree of recovery to pre-crisis levels of prices for shares from the corresponding sectors is analyzed in the face of the challenges of the corresponding period. A comparative analysis of the dynamics of industry indices with each other and relative to the main stock market index (IMOEX) is conducted. The sectoral indices that outperformed the IMOEX index and those that demonstrated a noticeable lag behind it, as well as indices that showed recovery in the period under review at a level close to IMOEX, are identified. The reasons for these circumstances are substantiated. The methodological features of calculating industry indices are noted, which affected their values ​​and the practical possibilities of their interpretation when implementing investment strategies. Conclusions are made regarding the typicality, in comparison with the international market, of the behavior in Russia in the specified period of shares from various industries in conditions of pressure on the economy and its recovery, including from industries that are considered «defensive/ staples» and «cyclical/ discretionary». Separate proposals are formulated regarding the calculation and application of the indices of PJSC «Moscow Exchange».