ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF LOCAL CONFLICTS IN THE WORLD ON THE PRICE OF OIL

Abstract

Local conflicts are considered in order to gain experience to overcome them, reduce the risks of occurrence, and obtain valuable information as an assessment of their impact on individual processes and indicators, for example, on world oil prices. In order to study the impact of local conflicts in the world on the price of oil, the situation in the Middle East is being investigated, where the conflict between Israel and Iran, Israel and Palestine is currently escalating. The history and causes of the conflicts are determined, the position of the Russian authorities and the authorities of other countries on the aggravation of the situation since October 2023 is presented. The possible consequences of these wars are given. The analysis of the impact of the consequences of military operations in the Middle East on the level of world oil prices is carried out. The statistics of oil prices for the period from October 2023 to October 2024 are presented. The analysis and assessment of the opinion of the leading experts of this market regarding changes in oil prices in the world as a result of the possible development of two scenarios: cessation of hostilities as a positive scenario (elimination of a local conflict) or vice versa, a negative scenario - escalation (build-up, even greater aggravation of a local conflict).